Tacoma Moving To San Antonio

Posted by Admin (Jason) in August 17th, 2009

The Wall Street Journal and the Contra Costa Times are both reporting that NUMMI will close in March 2010, at which time Toyota will move production of the Corolla to Canada and the production of the Tacoma to San Antonio.

The Toyota Tacoma is moving to San Antonio

Our best to employees at NUMMI – this makes our earlier declaration that Toyota is closing NUMMI official.

So, now that Toyota has made the decision, what does this mean for the Tundra? Here’s the skinny:

1) Toyota is going to expand the San Antonio plant. As it sits, TMMTX can produce 150,000 vehicles per year. With sales down nearly 30% in 2009, Toyota is still going to produce nearly 80,000 Tundras. The remaining production – 70,000 units – isn’t nearly enough to replace the Tacoma production that’s lost with the closure of NUMMI (which built 101k Tacos last year). When the auto industry recovers and sales heat back up, San Antonio won’t be able to build enough trucks without some sort of expansion. We believe San Antonio will need to increase production by at least 100,000 units.

2) The backlash against Toyota over the closure of NUMMI will be somewhat muted. We still anticipate a ‘full-court press’ by the UAW over Toyota’s decision to close NUMMI, but keeping Tacoma production in the USA (rather than moving it to Canada or Mexico) helps overcome this issue.

3) The future of the Tundra is still cloudy. This move has two possible meanings for the Tundra:

Possibility #1: With more investment in the San Antonio plant, it will be easier for Toyota to build low-volume Tundra variants like the diesel Tundra or HD Tundra. Additional investment also means that the Tundra’s production costs are effectively lower because they’re going to be split between two vehicles now.
Possibility #2: Now that San Antonio isn’t completely dependent upon the success of the Tundra, it’s easier than ever for Toyota to completely walk away from the half-ton truck segment.

We’ll know the future of the Tundra when Toyota announces the size of their investment in San Antonio. If Toyota only adds 50,000 units of production, the Tundra will be in trouble. Officially, our guess is that Toyota isn’t ready to throw in the towel on half-tons any time soon…but a case can be made for doing so. Check back on Wednesday and we’ll show how it could make sense to stop making the Tundra.

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9 comments

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TXTee Said in August 17th, 2009 @2:37 pm

Not sure if I got the point but are you thinking Toyota may withdraw from the half-ton market because of resource issues in the SATX plant? Scary but glad I already have my Big Daddy Truck……

admin (Jason) Said in August 17th, 2009 @2:54 pm

TXTee – We’ve got another post coming so I’ll just say this: Toyota’s investment in Texas is no longer tied to the Tundra.

Mickey Said in August 17th, 2009 @6:32 pm

Closing the plant in California is a very god move for Toyota. SInce GM pulled out left Toyota with the bill.

mk Said in August 17th, 2009 @8:47 pm

The Tacoma is a very nice mid-sized truck and I would get one in a heartbeat if I did not have a family of 4. Much better than the ford ranger and chevy s-10 and the dodge dakota is nice, but still a dodge in financial trouble. I pray the tundra does not go away in 2012 when the next design out is due for the revamped tundra since it is finally a full-sized truck with a decent, if not much better, tranny and engine than any of the Big 3 have. Lets hope the plant in TX has enough build capacity to produce enough Tacomas and Tundras. One thing that is not good is if the Corolla will be built in Canada – no offense to Canadians, but all my past Chevies built in Oshawa Ontario Canada all had problems with parts falling off right after delivery or components not put together tight and correctly.

TXTee Said in August 18th, 2009 @12:02 pm

*sniffles* I’ll have to get a new “Built in TX” sticker since my camper covers up the other one and I need to support the San Antonio factory. Either way I just don’t want to see the Tundra leave the market like the Titan. Tacos are cute (sorry, I’m a girl, it’s CUTE) but I made the right choice with the Tundra……the Taco would not have been able to haul 3 Labs in addition to other animal cages, boxes, etc.

admin (Jason) Said in August 19th, 2009 @12:47 pm

TXTee – I don’t think the Tundra is going away, but a case can definitely be made.

TXTee Said in August 19th, 2009 @8:59 pm

Here’s to hoping! I love that big beast of a truck and what it can do.

JC Said in November 17th, 2009 @7:34 pm

What this post neglected to consider is that the U.S. Toyota Tacoma is also built in Mexico, so Toyota will have no problem meeting the demand for the Tacomas in the U.S. Secondly Toyota has officially stated numerous times that it has no intention of exiting the full size truck segment, in fact there have been rumors that Nissan may be trying to convince Toyota to share the platform for the next Titan. Lastly, when the San Antonio plant was built originally for the Tundra, Toyota had already negotiated with the city to have the necessary land available for future production expansion which is already in progress. I do hope that Toyota will eventually end production in Mexico and build the Tacoma exclusively in Texas as it would be a good “Made in USA” PR move.

Admin (Jason) Said in November 18th, 2009 @11:49 am

JC – I agree that Toyota should move all U.S. Tacoma production to the U.S. I’m guessing you’re well aware that the Mexico plant has very limited capacity – only 50,000 units – and that it mostly builds beds for the Taco. As for Toyota’s commitment to the Tundra, I agree that Toyota is invested for the next few years…but beyond that, I have some doubts. If I were to handicap the chances of Toyota building a Tundra in 2020, based on what I know right now I’d say they’re around 80%. It’s going to depend a lot on the final version of the federal fuel economy regs that should be released soon. Gas prices are another concern. Still, to be clear, I’m optimistic. I’m very hopeful that Toyota builds both a diesel version of the existing truck as well as building an HD version with a large diesel. Thoughts?