Two months ago we posted an article about Toyota’s plan to manage the inventory of the Tundra very closely. The theory is that Toyota wants dealers to have barely enough Tundras to get by.

Do Toyota dealers have enough Tundras?

Do Toyota dealers have enough Tundras?

The trouble with “barely enough” is that it means different things to different people. For some, finding out that their local Toyota dealer has just 5 Tundras is disappointing. They want to buy a specific Tundra, and they want to buy it now.

The good news: despite the risks, Toyota’s strategy seems to be working – JD Power says that the Tundra is hot right now – check it out. Here’s why:

Let’s start with a comment from an upset consumer that sums up the risks of Toyota’s barely enough trucks strategy:

“Jimmydean: I’ve been in the market for a Tundra for several weeks now. What I’ve encountered at numerous Toyota dealers is a range from almost cocky, to uninspired or frustrated sales people. Basically, there is no product to LOOK AT or TEST DRIVE and therefore my interest in the Tundra is diminishing…Off to the GMC, Ford and Dodge dealers I go…

Jimmy’s comments aren’t unusual when dealers have low volumes of desirable vehicles. Still, this isn’t the only kind of reaction that consumers have. In fact, when dealers have a low supply, consumers often create a feeding frenzy.

First, here’s why lots of inventory is bad:

When a consumer walks into their local Ford, GM, or Chrysler dealership, the lots are full of trucks. Consumers are asked: What cab? What engine? What color? etc… the sale dawdles. When they have lots of options, consumers take their time. No urgency (as a result of large inventory) results in a very slow sales process.

Often times dealers and manufacturers have to jump-start sales by offering substantial discounts…which is bad because discounts erode value. Consumers inevitably wonder “Why would they (the auto manufacturer) need to give me $3000 to buy this truck?” Discounts reduce consumer confidence and erode resale value. Domestics, which have been offering HUGE truck discounts for years, have terrible resale values… Edmunds.com lists the F150 and the Ram as two of the 10 worst resale values in the truck market.

Here’s why the Tundra is getting hot again:

  1. Fewer vehicles encourage consumers to act quickly. Quick action reduces one of the key advantages that Ford, GM, and Chrysler have over Toyota. At some point, if consumers wait long enough, Ford/GM/Chrysler is going to offer a ridiculous discount on a new F150/Silverado/Ram that’s simply too good to miss. If the Tundra is hard to get (especially the exact Tundra the consumer wants), they’re much more likely to act NOW – taking the air out of the domestics “blow out” sales.
  2. The Tundra’s perceived value is higher. When you go to the Ford dealership, you ask what kind of deal you can get on one of 100 trucks. When you go to the Toyota dealership, you ask if the blue Tundra in the back is still available (crossing your fingers the whole time). That’s a big difference.
  3. This strategy supports Toyota’s value story. Every Toyota dealer in North America has a plaque on the wall somewhere that reads: “the bitterness of poor quality remains long after the sweetness of cheap price is forgotten.” When consumers ask why there aren’t a lot of new Tundras to be had, dealers can explain that it’s because of quality…and it will make sense.
  4. This strategy supports the Tundra’s industry leading resale value. Toyota is hanging their hat on resale value, and it’s a good bet with the Tundra. When there are just barely enough new Tundras to go around, used Tundras become more valuable. Supply and demand, right?

Of course, the downsides to this strategy are:

  1. Transaction prices are higher. If the typical Tundra is more expensive than the typical F150, some people won’t buy the Tundra because they can’t afford to do so.
  2. Some consumers won’t engage. Like the comment above, some consumers will simply cross the Tundra off their list if they can’t find the exact model they want.

Will the downsides of this strategy outweigh the advantages? As of today, the answer seems to be yes..but what do you think? Would a scarcity of Tundras at your local Toyota dealer encourage or discourage you to buy? Comment below.

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