Toyota’s decision to move Tacoma production to San Antonio is most likely good news for the future of the Tundra. Still, the case can be made that this move signals danger. Tundra sales are down and Toyota executives have been less than positive about the vehicle. Moving production of the Tacoma to Texas could be a sign that the Tundra is on the way out.

The case for dropping the Toyota Tundra
To be clear, we believe the Tundra is here to stay. Still, there are quite a few reasons for Toyota to walk away from the Tundra completely:
1. Fuel economy. The new truck fuel economy requirement of 30 mpg by 2016 is challenging (to say the least). If Toyota decided to stop making the Tundra, it will be much easier to meet these requirements.
2. Profits. When the 2nd-generation Tundra was conceived, Toyota hoped to sell 200k units per year. While Toyota narrowly missed that sales goal in 2007, 2008 and 2009 have been a different story. Sales are so low now that Toyota is likely losing money on every Tundra sold. Unless Toyota can restore Tundra sales, there’s not going to be a monetary reason to build them.
3. The investment in San Antonio is no longer tied to the Tundra. Toyota invested more than $1 billion dollars in San Antonio so they would have a place to build the 2nd generation Tundra. Up until recently, this investment represented the biggest reason to keep making Tundras – stop building the Tundra, and Toyota would have to throw away that investment. Now that the Tacoma is being built in San Antonio, this is less of a concern.
4. Environmentalist rage. To be blunt, the “greenies” hate the fact that Toyota builds one of the most fuel efficient vehicles (the Prius) as well as one of the least fuel efficient (the 5.7 Tundra). Of course, the reality here is that “efficiency” is subjective – Americans need trucks for work, and a lot of Americans need them for play too. “Greenies” don’t understand this reality…but that’s not really the point. If Toyota stopped building the Tundra, the green set would be happy.
5. Trucks will get smaller. If you add up new federal fuel economy regs, higher fuel prices, and an increased emphasis on low emissions, it’s entirely possible that pickup trucks will get smaller. If North Americans decide they can get by with smaller pickups (certainly a possibility), the Tundra will simply become obsolete.
While the case against the Tundra is strong, there’s quite a bit going for the Tundra too. Toyota quality is excellent, Tundra resale value is substantially better than all competitors, and Toyota has a huge base of customers to sell Tundras to. If Toyota can cut Tundra production costs, the truck will be a nice source of profit for years to come.
Hopefully, Toyota will take our advice and start offering diesel Tundras immediately – that’s the future of big trucks in North America.
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I don’t think toyota will abandon Tundra…they’ll simply find a way to get it more fuel efficient.
If they were successful in this they’d be the only half ton on the market in 2016 cuz we know the
Other guys don’t have the R&D money to pull it off.