As you may or may not know, Toyota has flirted with the notion of building a diesel version of the Toyota Tundra for some time. Originally, Toyota’s plan was to attack the truck market with both a big powerful HD diesel Tundra AND a powerful yet fuel-efficient diesel version of the half-ton Tundra. Sadly, slow sales and a slow economy have halted these plans.

In what may be considered good news, we have it on high authority that Toyota has done more than just design a half-ton diesel – rumors of an actual working half-ton diesel Tundra seem to be legitimate (yet we have no photos). In any case, Toyota’s decision to produce a diesel truck will largely be determined when specific fuel economy and emissions regulations are released by the Obama administration.

Until these emission regs are released, it’s anyone’s guess as to the future of the diesel Tundra. However, at this point, the chances of Toyota producing a diesel truck seem to be very, very low.

In any case, be sure to read our complete history of the diesel Toyota Tundra.

Check out this list of available Toyota Tundra shocks

photo credit: respres

Diesel truck advantages:

• Diesel is more efficient. Depending on who you ask, diesel engines are about 30% more fuel efficient than a gasoline engine of comparable size.
• Diesel engines are heavy on torque. Diesel engines provide gobs of torque at very low RPMs – much more than a typical gas motor.
• Diesel engines run a very long time. Your typical diesel truck engine will run 200k miles minimum before a problem develops. For gasoline engines, 120k miles is a more realistic “no problems” life span.

Of course, it’s not all roses and horsepower with diesels – here’s a few reasons diesels aren’t better than gasoline:

• Emissions. Diesel engines pump out a lot of NOx (nitrous oxides) and particulate matter a.k.a. soot a.k.a. “black stuff.”
• Expense. Diesel fuel (at least in the USA) is more expensive than gasoline and the engines themselves usually have higher maintenance costs. Because diesels produce more emissions, they need more expensive emissions equipment…which raises the up-front cost quite a bit.
• Availability. Finding diesel fuel at your local service station can be a challenge (depending on where you live).

The question before us: Can diesel overcome these challenges?

On the availability question, definitely. Diesel trucks typically have larger than average fuel tanks to help them compensate for fewer diesel stations. Between the extra capacity and the engine’s superior fuel economy, it’s hard to run out of diesel.

On the cost question…possibly, but it depends on the buyer. I believe that consumers are willing to pay more for a diesel if it gives them enough benefits. Diesel engines are wildly popular in heavy duty trucks despite their tremendously higher costs. Ford’s 6.4L PowerStroke is a $9,325 option on the 2010 F350, and they’re selling just fine because big truck buyers need the power and efficiency of a diesel. As far as light-duty trucks are concerned, no one is quite sure. While I personally believe there are hundreds of thousands of people itching to buy a half-ton diesel pickup, Ford, Dodge, GM, and Toyota have all canceled or delayed plans to sell a half-ton truck with a diesel (see Tundra diesel delayed). In other words, the people that make the trucks don’t agree.

On the emissions question…dicey. Large diesel trucks (like the SuperDuty mentioned above) have been exempted from the most restrictive emissions regulations for a long time…but that’s beginning to change. Recently, these large trucks have fallen under the eye of regulators and we’re beginning to see some very strict emissions standards applied. If this trend continues, diesel could be in trouble – especially if regulators start applying gasoline hybrid like emissions standards across the board.

Are diesel truck engines doomed (at least in North America)? Hard to say. The future of diesel was pretty bright two years ago, but with a recent increase in emissions standards, most truck makers have backed off expanding their diesel line-ups (except Mahindra, but that’s another story).

What do you think – is the diesel truck on the decline?

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Here’s what our sources at Toyota have told us the last couple of years…

“Toyota’s going to build a couple of diesel Tundra’s, and one of them will be a real live heavy-duty monster. Count on it – 3 years after launch tops.”

“No – wait – we’re not going to build a HD diesel right now, only the light-duty diesel. The big diesel and the HD Tundra will be delayed until this whole truck market bounces back.”

“Uh, we decided to go ahead and back off the light-duty diesel too. We’re not sure that with fuel prices being the way they are that blah, blah, blah.”

In case you were wondering, this is an editorialized version of Toyota’s steady backslide on their commitment to build a diesel version of the Tundra. While Toyota is certainly entitled to change their mind about building a diesel Tundra (despite promises made to Toyota dealers to the contrary), what doesn’t make sense – what irritates the hell out of us, actually – is that Toyota continues to trot out the one-of-a-kind Tundra Diesel Dually that premiered at SEMA last year.

Visit Jalopnik.com to see their comments on this truck.

What’s the deal Toyota? You haven’t stomped on our hopes enough? Why keep showing us a truck you’re not going to build for at least another 5 years (if ever)?

The cynical answer: Toyota wants to keep the concept of a Diesel HD Tundra alive. They realize that some people will delay purchasing a diesel from one of their competitors based on the implication the SEMA Dually might actually exist someday. Sinister.

The logical answer: Toyota has stopped investing in the Tundra for the short term. They don’t have any concepts to show off aside from a supercharged regular cab race truck (big deal – we built one of those) and a “TRD off-road DoubleCab.”

Either way, shame on you Toyota. The truck market isn’t going to go away, and there’s plenty of reason to believe you can challenge Ford, GM, and Chrysler for leadership. Get to it!

Check out this list of available Toyota Tundra shocks

Toyota’s recent announcement that they’re “shelving” the diesel Tundra is a dumb decision. Here’s why:

• Ford, GM, and Chrylser will all offer diesel half ton trucks in the next 2 years (or less). Toyota will be the only major manufacturer without a light-duty diesel truck.
• Diesel engines offer the best potential for high fuel economy. Early estimates are that a diesel equipped Sierra or Silverado could get around 26mpg without a drop in performance* when compared to the current 5.3L gas engine.
• Light duty diesels are the best substitute for Ford, Dodge, and GM HD truck owners looking to step-down without sacrificing capabilities.
• Toyota already has an excellent light-duty diesel – the Aussie 4.5L twin turbo – ready to go. Economies of scale would likely make this engine cost-competitive with domestic offerings.

With the positives associated with integrating the 4.5L diesel into the Tundra being so plain, one has to wonder why Toyota would shelve such a promising powertrain? Lots of explanations are floating around, but here’s what we believe.

Have Toyota’s fears of a cultural conflict led them to cancel the diesel Tundra?

1. Toyota is concerned the diesel take rate will be low. In the last 6 months, the diesel “take rate” (the number of customers choosing the diesel engine) in the HD segment has dropped nearly 30%. While consumers are stating that high diesel fuel costs are to blame, this is a misnomer. Diesel’s higher costs are offset by better fuel economy. The issue is total cost – new diesel trucks are $5k-$6k dollars more expensive than comparable gas engine trucks, and many casual truck consumers are waiting to see what happens. The current product mix is being dominated by commercial purchasers who are more interested in lower upfront costs (and therefore gas engines) and less concerned about long-term costs. When the consumers re-enter the market, diesel take rates will increase.

2. Toyota isn’t sure how to price the diesel option. Because Toyota doesn’t know how many consumers will buy the diesel engine, they can’t figure out how much to charge for it. If Toyota counts on a large volume of diesel Tundra sales and prices the option accordingly (assuming volume discounts), they stand to lose a fortune if the market under-performs. Conversely, if they price the option too high, the trucks will sit and the development costs will be hard to recover.

3. Politics. That’s right – you read it here first. Toyota’s political concerns certainly don’t help the case for a diesel Tundra. Let’s just say that the diesel Tundra sells well. With such a small truck market right now, Tundra sales will most certainly come at the expense of Dodge, GM, or Ford sales. All three manufacturers NEED truck sales to stay in business, and Toyota leadership is likely concerned that strong Tundra sales will cause the demise of one of the “not-so-big” three. Since there’s a good chance a “Buy American” backlash would follow the collapse of GM, Chrysler, or Ford, Toyota would rather surrender the truck segment than risk a culture war.

4. Toyota is losing their way. Finally, and most disappointingly, Toyota is beginning to lose their way. Once known for making smart, long-term decisions, today’s Toyota contradicts themselves. Promising diesel, hybrid, and heavy-duty versions of the Tundra in 2006 and 2007, then backing off those commitments and throwing away the preliminary engineering. Launching a zero percent sale while at the same time stating that Toyota will not enter a truck war with the domestics. Handing plug-in electric car leadership to GM. Increasing numbers of quality problems and recalls. These are all examples of a big company losing it’s way – will Toyota emulate the collapse of once powerful General Motors?

Only time will tell. One fact is certain – dropping the diesel Tundra was a dumb decision.

*Source: August 25th, 2008 Automotive News “GM’s Powertrain Plan”

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Despite our complete disbelief and our challenge of the original PickupTrucks.com report, Toyota exec Don Esmond (a senior VP) was officially quoted as saying “We’ve pushed back the [Tundra diesel] until we can figure out where the market is going.” Kudos to PickupTrucks.com Mike Levine for confirming his earlier report on the record.

Has Toyota made a smart move, or is this decision an error in judgment?

1. Ford, GM, and Dodge have all announced plans to offer 150(0)’s with diesel engines in the next 18-24 months. Based on this announcement Toyota will be the only serious half-ton truck manufacturer without a diesel. Toyota has made great strides to be considered “one of the big-boys” in the truck business, yet this announcement surrenders truck leadership to the domestics and drains momentum.
2. Toyota has already broadcast their intention to delay the HD Tundra for a few years. This move seemed wise at the time – especially with the Tundra LD diesel on the way – but now it looks as if Toyota is surrendering the HD segment to the domestics as well.
3. As we discussed here a few months ago, the cost-benefit analysis of a light-duty diesel Tundra depends greatly on the price premium for the diesel engine. Toyota probably can’t sell too many Tundra’s with diesel engines unless they can get the diesel engine price increase to less than $2000. Considering the complexity of a modern diesel, that price range might not have been feasible. Yet, somehow, the domestic truck manufacturers have yet to back off their plans to produce half-ton diesel trucks. Is Toyota unable to match the diesel engine pricing of GM, Ford, and Dodge?
4. The analysis from PickupTruck.com says that Toyota didn’t think they could sell enough diesel Tundra trucks to make a profit, with fuel prices being cited as part of the reason for lower sales. Yet Ford and Dodge both have a mountain of evidence to indicate that new truck sales have likely hit bottom. This would seem to agree with common sense – after all, trucks are still necessary equipment for a lot of Americans. If truck sales are likely to increase, why freeze development?

Toyota’s decision to pause the release of the 4.5L Tundra diesel was likely based on nothing more than accounting. It doesn’t make sense from a product development standpoint, and when Ford, GM, and Dodge enjoy strong sales of the 150(0) diesel trucks, Toyota will have to look back on this decision and wonder why they allowed accountants to build vehicles.

At least we can expect an updated Tundra next year…

Check out this list of available Toyota Tundra shocks

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Pickuptrucks.com has reported that plans for a light-duty 4.5L diesel Tundra have been shelved. We officially doubt the veracity of this news report.

1. Toyota is rumored to be producing a 4.5L diesel version of the Landcruiser for the Canadian market next year (promotional materials have been described). Making this engine ready for the low-volume Canadian market while canceling it in the U.S. makes no sense. At the very least, if the Tundra doesn’t get the 4.5L, you can bet that nothing else in the North America will either.

2. The 4.5L diesel boosts Toyota’s CAFE average. Toyota will find it easier to meet new CAFE requirements if they find a way to improve truck and large SUV fuel economy by 25%. The 4.5L diesel would improve fuel economy by at least that much.

3. Everyone else is doing it. Dodge, Ford, and GM definitely need to build small diesel motors if they want to have any chance of meeting federal CAFE requirements. This is an absolute, set in stone, iron-clad fact. The domestics WILL be offering diesel versions of the Ram, Silverado/Sierra, and F150 by 2010 or 2011. Toyota can’t be the only manufacturer that doesn’t offer this engine – at least not without officially becoming an “also-ran.”

4. The LandCruiser and the Sequoia would both benefit from a diesel motor. The 4.5L wasn’t just going to be put in the Tundra – it was also going to be offered in the Sequoia and the LandCruiser. Both of these vehicles could use a powerful and fuel efficient motor.

5. Finally, and most importantly, this rumor doesn’t make sense. If we assume for a moment that the U.S. truck market is going “small,” big truck sales (i.e. three-quarter and one-ton trucks) will suffer the most. Ford, GM, and Dodge have already determined that their HD and SuperDuty lines are overkill for 90% of their buyers, hence their commitment to offering diesel half-ton trucks. The rationale is that by offering a powerful diesel in a half-ton truck, you give people currently driving a 3/4 or 1-ton truck a truck to “step down” to. A half-ton diesel can offer tremendous performance (12k lbs towing, 2500lbs payload) while also offering decent fuel economy and lower maintenance costs. After all, less than 5 years ago most heavy duty trucks (3/4 and 1 ton) couldn’t pull much more than 12k lbs. Now half-tons are pulling that much.

We think this rumor has been “floated” by Toyota’s PR people to guage public response to a possible official announcement. It sounds like the penny-pinchers at Toyota are advocating a step in the wrong direction – hopefully the loud public outcry will put them in their place.

Check out this list of available Toyota Tundra shocks

For the 2010 model year, the rumor is that Toyota has decided to take the 4.5 liter diesel engine that currently resides in the Australian LandCruiser 200 and shoehorn it into the Tundra. Given that each of the ‘Big Three’ domestic truck makers has committed to offering a diesel engine in their half-ton trucks, this move is designed to help put Toyota on equal footing as well as raise the CAFE fleet fuel economy rating for the Toyota brand.

The 4.5 liter diesel engine that will be used in the Tundra is brand new for 2008 in the LandCruiser 200 (Australia’s version of the Land Cruiser). A direct injection V8, it produces 286 horsepower and a stunning 480 lb-feet of torque in the Australian market. These numbers should be quite similar once the engine has been altered to meet U.S. emissions standards. In the LandCruiser 200, the 4.5L diesel is mated to a 6-speed automatic – one very similar to the Tundra’s current 6-speed matched to the 5.7L, so that feature will undoubtedly carry over to the U.S.

The 4.5L diesel features a twin-turbo setup to keep the horsepower up for highway cruising and as well as low-end power for towing. The use of a twin-turbo system in a diesel is new for the U.S. market – the diesels in most trucks feature only a single turbo (except Ford’s relatively new 6.4L Powerstroke). However, with ever more restrictive U.S. emissions standards, twin turbo diesels will probably become more common.

At first inspection, the purpose of the half-ton diesel is a mystery. The current diesel options – the Ford Powerstroke, the GMC Duramax, and the Dodge Cummins – all generate about 350 horsepower and a very serious 650 lb-feet of torque. The Tundra’s 4.5L diesel can’t hope to offer similar performance, which begs the question – What’s the point of this engine?

The answer – fuel economy. Diesel engines typically achieve 25% – 30% better fuel economy than a normal gasoline engine. Diesels are naturally more fuel efficient because they do a better job of retaining heat generated in the combustion process (reducing heat loss), they run at much higher compression ratios (thermodynamically better), and they generate lots of power at low RPMs (lower RPMs equal less fuel use). Early estimates are that the 4.5L diesel engine will achieve an average of 22-23mpg in the Tundra – quite a bit better than the average of 16-17mpg that many Tundra owners are currently getting with 5.7L.

Some have said that buying a diesel Tundra half-ton, even one that gets 22-23 mpg, doesn’t make a lot of financial sense. First of all, diesel maintenance is more expensive. Diesels use a lot more oil, they tend to use more fuel and air filters, and diesel fuel is currently more expensive than gasoline. Secondly, there’s an up-front cost premium associated with the diesel – we’re guessing the diesel Tundra will cost about $3,000 more. For some buyers, the diesel Tundra’s better fuel economy may not be enough.

While there is some truth to this argument, it’s important to remember that diesel engines last twice as long as gasoline engines (on average). That means the diesel Tundra will have much higher resale value than a gasoline-powered Tundra. Also, the actual cost difference between diesel and gas engines will very much influence the final calculus. If the cost premium for a diesel engine is less than we’ve estimated (say $1,500 instead of $3,000), the diesel’s improved fuel economy will quickly cover the higher maintenance and up-front costs.

In the final analysis, there are quite a few reasons to be excited about the diesel Tundra. For one, the presence of a diesel motor in the lineup with gobs of torque on tap will likely attract a new range of buyers who want to be able to tow their animal trailers and boats without sacrificing fuel economy. Toyota diesels, and diesel motors in general, are also known for their great reliability, and combined with Toyota’s pre-existing image for build quality, the diesel should become an attractive option for work truck buyers. Lastly, there’s no denying that a twin-turbo, diesel powered Toyota Tundra will be cool as hell.

Check out this list of available Toyota Tundra shocks

According to Edmunds.com, the Tundra will be offered with a 4.5L diesel V8 for the 2010 model year. While we predicted a diesel for the 2010 model Toyota Tundra a few months ago, Edmunds.com has offered a couple of new points. First, the 4.5L diesel currently being used in the Aussie Land Cruiser is being adapted to the Tundra. We’ve since confirmed this with a couple of Toyota sources we have. Second, Toyota is also planning a larger diesel for an HD version of the Tundra, possibly due out in 2011.

We’ve confirmed that the 4.5L diesel twin-turbo found in the Australian LandCruiser 200 is the basis for the 2010 Tundra Diesel.

The 4.5L found in the Australian LandCruiser features twin turbos, dual overhead cams, and it’s rated at 286hp (at 3,400 RPM) and 480 lb-ft of torque (at 1,600 RPM). While these ratings are impressive, it’s difficult to imagine Toyota marketing a diesel engine with less than 300hp, and 500lb-ft of torque should be readily attainable with an engine this size. Having said that, U.S. emissions requirements may reduce power below these ratings and estimates.

The speculation surrounding a larger 7.0L diesel is interesting. First of all, the likelihood of Toyota developing a true HD version of the Tundra (aka 3/4 ton and 1 ton) is high, but it’s far from certain. If some states (like California and New York) have their way and create their own emissions regulations, we can probably kiss the HD variant of the Tundra goodbye. It would be simply too complicated to try to produce a new diesel in these market conditions. Second, the rumored 7.0L diesel would be a brand-new engine. Considering the development costs involved with building a new engine from the ground-up, it’s difficult to imagine Toyota making the investment in this market. Uncertainty surrounding pickup truck demand (due to higher fuel prices), as well as stiff competition from Ford and GM, may discourage Toyota from developing an HD Tundra – at least until the market stabilizes.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Here’s a Toyota produced video of the 4.5L diesel.

As far as fuel economy is concerned, only the “light duty” 4.5L diesel will be subject to fuel economy testing – a larger heavy duty diesel will probably be exempt from fuel economy testing (as is the case the HD offerings from Ford, Chrysler, and GM). The initial estimates for 4.5L diesel fuel economy hover around 22mpg, but it’s too soon to say for certain. Many changes will be made to the Australian version of this engine to make it compliant with US emission regulations.

Finally, pricing information is unknown. Normally, however, diesel engines run $5k to $6k more than similarly-sized gas engines. This price range will most likely mean that the 4.5L diesel will only be available in the Doublecab and CrewMax versions of the Tundra, where the price point is easier to absorb. That means a 2010 Tundra CrewMax Limited 4×4 Diesel could reach as high as $50,000! Quite a bit of money, but definitely within the realm of possibility for a lot of consumers.

Our Toyota source has told us that the difficulty with the new Tundra diesel is balancing power output with emissions – making a powerful engine that’s also fuel efficient. Ultimately, this may delay the engine. In the mean time, the objective is to debut the engine in 2009 as a 2010 model. This matches the timetable announced by Ford for it’s 4.4L diesel. We can’t wait to find out what the final result is – we’ll keep you posted as we learn more.

Coming up – Inside The 4.5L Diesel – an article all about the 4.5L twin turbo diesel currently being sold in Australia.

Check out this list of available Toyota Tundra shocks

Boy, do we like it when we’re right…here’s the Reuter’s press release trimmed-down to the important facts:

Toyota President Katsuaki Watanabe said on Sunday the Japanese automaker will launch a diesel-powered Tundra pickup truck and Sequoia SUV in the United States…Toyota has repeatedly hesitated to committing a diesel vehicle for the U.S. market…especially for use in larger vehicles.

“I am happy to confirm that a new clean-diesel V8 engine will be offered in both the Tundra and the Sequoia in the near future,” Watanabe told a news conference at the North American International Auto Show.

The “near future” is likely to be next year…we think the Diesel Tundra will debut in late 2009 as a 2010 model. Toyota usually doesn’t disclose information like this unless they’re more than halfway to production. Most industry experts agree that 3 years are needed to develop and produce a new power train, so we’re reasonably sure the 2010 model will have a diesel. That will coincide with an F150 diesel launch scheduled for the same year.

So the race is one to predict the new Tundra diesel’s displacement, horsepower, and torque…anyone want to guess?

Check out this list of available Toyota Tundra shocks

Isuzu and Toyota made a recent announcement about a diesel they’re developing that shines some light on their development of a diesel Toyota Tundra.

GOOD NEWS: While not specifically having anything to do with the Tundra, Toyota’s recent announcement (see link below) contains some enlightening information. The press release indicates that Toyota and Isuzu can recuperate diesel development costs even if the diesel engine they’ve developed only sells 20k units per year. If Toyota can recover their R&D costs on on such a small number of engines, the sales volume needed to justify producing a diesel variant of the Tundra is probably lower than we estimated in our last discussion of a Diesel Toyota Tundra.

If we conservatively assume that Toyota will need to sell 40k diesel engines per year to cover R&D costs, Toyota only needs to boost Tundra sales by 20% to reach their “break-even” point. In 2006, Dodge sold 150k diesels, GM 200k, and Ford about 320k diesel powered pickups. Granted, some of those vehicles were “fleet” heavy duty offerings that Toyota may not compete with, but if Toyota only reaches 10% diesel market share, they’ll more than break-even on their diesel development costs.

Is this an indicator that Toyota is producing a Diesel Tundra? We think so — Toyota continues to demonstrate interest and investment in the diesel market, and the pending passage of new CAFE regulations requiring better fuel economy encourage Toyota to put more emphasis on diesel technology. Considering that Toyota Vice President Kazuo Okamoto has stated the Tundra is going to be Toyota’s first U.S. diesel, consider this another sign that a Diesel Tundra is coming ASAP.

Why do you think the Diesel Tundra will debut in 2009? The industry consensus is that engine development takes 2 – 3 years. Toyota announced a partnership with Isuzu to develop diesel engines in June of this year, the idea being that Toyota would be able to bring diesel variants to market faster with Isuzu’s help. If R&D for a diesel Tundra began immediately after the partnership with Isuzu was solidified, (which is easy to imagine based on the Tundra’s sales performance this year) that would mean that the Tundra diesel engine will be ready for production in 2009 or 2010. We believe that Toyota will most likely assemble the new Tundra diesel engine from components already available, making 2 years a likely time frame.

How big will the Tundra’s diesel engine be? It’s still a mystery. Toyota may be adapting a diesel for the U.S. from one currently in production somewhere else in the world, or they may be developing a completely new engine. The 2007 Tundra Diesel SEMA concept featured an 8.0L Hino engine, but we doubt that will be the final offering…Ford is planning to offer a 4.4L diesel in the F150 in 2010, and Ford will offer a slightly larger version in their SuperDuty line. Certainly not anything as big as the 8.0L Hino though — such a big engine would only worsen emissions and fuel economy. Expect the Tundra diesel in the 6.0L range, with the possibility that Toyota’s first diesel might be a little smaller than everyone else’s (just like their first V8 was).

We’ll continue to update you about diesel development as more information comes in. Read the press release.

Check out this list of available Toyota Tundra shocks