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Reports That 4.5L Diesel Tundra “Delayed Indefinitely” Don’t Add Up

UPDATE – This news has been confirmed – please see our response “Dropping The Diesel A Dumb Decision

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Pickuptrucks.com has reported that plans for a light-duty 4.5L diesel Tundra have been shelved. We officially doubt the veracity of this news report.

1. Toyota is rumored to be producing a 4.5L diesel version of the Landcruiser for the Canadian market next year (promotional materials have been described). Making this engine ready for the low-volume Canadian market while canceling it in the U.S. makes no sense. At the very least, if the Tundra doesn’t get the 4.5L, you can bet that nothing else in the North America will either.

2. The 4.5L diesel boosts Toyota’s CAFE average. Toyota will find it easier to meet new CAFE requirements if they find a way to improve truck and large SUV fuel economy by 25%. The 4.5L diesel would improve fuel economy by at least that much.

3. Everyone else is doing it. Dodge, Ford, and GM definitely need to build small diesel motors if they want to have any chance of meeting federal CAFE requirements. This is an absolute, set in stone, iron-clad fact. The domestics WILL be offering diesel versions of the Ram, Silverado/Sierra, and F150 by 2010 or 2011. Toyota can’t be the only manufacturer that doesn’t offer this engine – at least not without officially becoming an “also-ran.”

4. The LandCruiser and the Sequoia would both benefit from a diesel motor. The 4.5L wasn’t just going to be put in the Tundra – it was also going to be offered in the Sequoia and the LandCruiser. Both of these vehicles could use a powerful and fuel efficient motor.

5. Finally, and most importantly, this rumor doesn’t make sense. If we assume for a moment that the U.S. truck market is going “small,” big truck sales (i.e. three-quarter and one-ton trucks) will suffer the most. Ford, GM, and Dodge have already determined that their HD and SuperDuty lines are overkill for 90% of their buyers, hence their commitment to offering diesel half-ton trucks. The rationale is that by offering a powerful diesel in a half-ton truck, you give people currently driving a 3/4 or 1-ton truck a truck to “step down” to. A half-ton diesel can offer tremendous performance (12k lbs towing, 2500lbs payload) while also offering decent fuel economy and lower maintenance costs. After all, less than 5 years ago most heavy duty trucks (3/4 and 1 ton) couldn’t pull much more than 12k lbs. Now half-tons are pulling that much.

We think this rumor has been “floated” by Toyota’s PR people to guage public response to a possible official announcement. It sounds like the penny-pinchers at Toyota are advocating a step in the wrong direction – hopefully the loud public outcry will put them in their place.

Popularity: 6%

The 4.5L Diesel Tundra – Does It Make Sense?

Update: Read the complete story of the diesel Tundra

For the 2010 model year, the rumor is that Toyota has decided to take the 4.5 liter diesel engine that currently resides in the Australian LandCruiser 200 and shoehorn it into the Tundra. Given that each of the ‘Big Three’ domestic truck makers has committed to offering a diesel engine in their half-ton trucks, this move is designed to help put Toyota on equal footing as well as raise the CAFE fleet fuel economy rating for the Toyota brand.

Toyota 4.5L diesel engine

The 4.5 liter diesel engine that will be used in the Tundra is brand new for 2008 in the LandCruiser 200 (Australia’s version of the Land Cruiser). A direct injection V8, it produces 286 horsepower and a stunning 480 lb-feet of torque in the Australian market. These numbers should be quite similar once the engine has been altered to meet U.S. emissions standards. In the LandCruiser 200, the 4.5L diesel is mated to a 6-speed automatic – one very similar to the Tundra’s current 6-speed matched to the 5.7L, so that feature will undoubtedly carry over to the U.S.

Popularity: 11%

4.5L Diesel Tundra Confirmed, Bigger Diesel Coming?

Update: Read the complete story of the diesel Tundra

According to Edmunds.com, the Tundra will be offered with a 4.5L diesel V8 for the 2010 model year. While we predicted a diesel for the 2010 model Toyota Tundra a few months ago, Edmunds.com has offered a couple of new points. First, the 4.5L diesel currently being used in the Aussie Land Cruiser is being adapted to the Tundra. We’ve since confirmed this with a couple of Toyota sources we have. Second, Toyota is also planning a larger diesel for an HD version of the Tundra, possibly due out in 2011.

The 4.5L diesel found in the Australian LandCruiser 200

We’ve confirmed that the 4.5L diesel twin-turbo found in the Australian LandCruiser 200 is the basis for the 2010 Tundra Diesel.

Popularity: 25%

Toyota Tundra Diesel CONFIRMED

UPDATE: Unfortunately, this is old news. Toyota back-tracked on this announcement and these plans are dead. Read the full story on the diesel Toyota Tundra.

Boy, do we like it when we’re right…here’s the Reuter’s press release trimmed-down to the important facts:

Toyota President Katsuaki Watanabe said on Sunday the Japanese automaker will launch a diesel-powered Tundra pickup truck and Sequoia SUV in the United States…Toyota has repeatedly hesitated to committing a diesel vehicle for the U.S. market…especially for use in larger vehicles.

“I am happy to confirm that a new clean-diesel V8 engine will be offered in both the Tundra and the Sequoia in the near future,” Watanabe told a news conference at the North American International Auto Show.

The “near future” is likely to be next year…we think the Diesel Tundra will debut in late 2009 as a 2010 model.

Popularity: 30%

Diesel Tundra Update: Diesel Tundra Likely in 2009

UPDATE – This post is out-of-date – see the latest news on the Diesel Tundra for more info.

Isuzu and Toyota made a recent announcement about a diesel they’re developing that shines some light on their development of a diesel Toyota Tundra.

GOOD NEWS: While not specifically having anything to do with the Tundra, Toyota’s recent announcement (see link below) contains some enlightening information. The press release indicates that Toyota and Isuzu can recuperate diesel development costs even if the diesel engine they’ve developed only sells 20k units per year. If Toyota can recover their R&D costs on on such a small number of engines, the sales volume needed to justify producing a diesel variant of the Tundra is probably lower than we estimated in our last discussion of a Diesel Toyota Tundra.

If we conservatively assume that Toyota will need to sell 40k diesel engines per year to cover R&D costs, Toyota only needs to boost Tundra sales by 20% to reach their “break-even” point. In 2006, Dodge sold 150k diesels, GM 200k, and Ford about 320k diesel powered pickups. Granted, some of those vehicles were “fleet” heavy duty offerings that Toyota may not compete with, but if Toyota only reaches 10% diesel market share, they’ll more than break-even on their diesel development costs.

Is this an indicator that Toyota is producing a Diesel Tundra? We think so — Toyota continues to demonstrate interest and investment in the diesel market, and the pending passage of new CAFE regulations requiring better fuel economy encourage Toyota to put more emphasis on diesel technology. Considering that Toyota Vice President Kazuo Okamoto has stated the Tundra is going to be Toyota’s first U.S. diesel, consider this another sign that a Diesel Tundra is coming ASAP.

Why do you think the Diesel Tundra will debut in 2009? The industry consensus is that engine development takes 2 – 3 years. Toyota announced a partnership with Isuzu to develop diesel engines in June of this year, the idea being that Toyota would be able to bring diesel variants to market faster with Isuzu’s help. If R&D for a diesel Tundra began immediately after the partnership with Isuzu was solidified, (which is easy to imagine based on the Tundra’s sales performance this year) that would mean that the Tundra diesel engine will be ready for production in 2009 or 2010. We believe that Toyota will most likely assemble the new Tundra diesel engine from components already available, making 2 years a likely time frame.

How big will the Tundra’s diesel engine be? It’s still a mystery. Toyota may be adapting a diesel for the U.S. from one currently in production somewhere else in the world, or they may be developing a completely new engine. The 2007 Tundra Diesel SEMA concept featured an 8.0L Hino engine, but we doubt that will be the final offering…Ford is planning to offer a 4.4L diesel in the F150 in 2010, and Ford will offer a slightly larger version in their SuperDuty line. Certainly not anything as big as the 8.0L Hino though — such a big engine would only worsen emissions and fuel economy. Expect the Tundra diesel in the 6.0L range, with the possibility that Toyota’s first diesel might be a little smaller than everyone else’s (just like their first V8 was).

We’ll continue to update you about diesel development as more information comes in. Read the press release.

Popularity: 70%

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